The 1^st Quarter Showing Surge Is Real (and We’re Going to Use It)

Every year Colorado does the same little magic trick.

Showings fall off a cliff in late November and December because people are busy traveling, eating, and pretending January is “next year’s problem.” Then the holidays end, buyers wake up, and showing activity snaps back fast, typically climbing through January and February and hitting premium levels by March. In many years, that March peak runs roughly 50% higher than slower parts of the year.

That’s not a vibe. That’s a measurable demand curve.

So if you’re selling in Q1, the goal isn’t to “list and hope.” The goal is to time the wave and price for momentum.

The opportunity: February is when serious buyers start acting

The chart tells a consistent story:

• Late Q4: showings drift down
• Holidays: showings bottom out
• January: activity rebounds quickly
• February: upgrades to “buyers are hunting”
• March: often the peak demand window

This is why Q1 is one of the best quarters to sell. Not because it’s pretty outside. Because more buyers are in motion at the same time, and that’s what creates competition.

Competition is what pays you.

Two key metrics that predict a sale

You can argue about paint colors all day. The market doesn’t care. The market answers one question:

1) Showing velocity (showings per week)

A simple rule of thumb: it often takes about 10 showings to produce a sale, assuming the home is positioned correctly.

If a home is going to sell in 30–60 days, it needs a steady flow of traffic. That usually means:

• Minimum target: 2 showings per week starting in February
• Better target: 3+ showings per week for “hot” pricing bands
• Red flag: 0–1 showing per week (you’re not in the game)

No showings = no offers. It’s like fishing without putting bait on the hook.

2) Conversion rate (showings that turn into offers)

Traffic is step one. Conversion is step two.

If you’re getting showings but no offers, one of three things is happening:

• Price is just high enough to get curiosity, but too high to get commitment
• Condition/presentation is creating objections
• Terms are scaring buyers off (closing date, possession, concessions, etc.)

We watch this closely because it tells us whether to fix presentation, adjust terms, or adjust price.

Our Q1 strategy: price for momentum, then go full MLS when the metrics prove it

Here’s the strategy I recommend for homeowners selling this quarter:

Step 1: Build a listing that wins on the internet

Buyers decide whether to tour your home in about 8 seconds.

So we start with:

• Pro photos (and 3D and Aerial photography if it fits the price band)
• Clean, simple improvements that move the needle (lighting, paint touch-ups, staging where it matters)
• A listing narrative that positions the home correctly, not “features spam”

Step 2: Pre-market to validate pricing and create demand

Before we do the full MLS blast, we can syndicate and test the market response to gauge buyer behavior and fine-tune pricing.

Why this matters:

• Pricing is not a guess, it’s a response to the market
• We want to learn quickly what buyers are doing before Days on Market becomes a scarlet letter

Step 3: Price to hit a minimum of 2 showings per week by February

This is the heart of the plan.

If we are not getting at least two showings per week in February, the market is telling us something. And it’s never subtle.

So we price with one goal: create showing velocity.

Not “leave room to negotiate.”
Not “try it high.”
Not “because my neighbor said.”

Velocity.

Step 4: Go live in the MLS once the showing metrics confirm the price

When the activity supports the price, we go full MLS and leverage the Q1 surge.

That’s when the buyer pool is expanding weekly, and competition has the best chance of doing what we want:

• protect price
• improve terms
• shorten time on market

Step 5: If the metrics lag, we adjust fast (not later)

The biggest mistake sellers make is waiting too long to react.

If the market says we’re overpriced, we don’t “give it time.” Time is what turns a good listing into a stale one.

A smart adjustment early often nets more than a slow bleed over 60 days.

What you should expect if this plan is working

By early-to-mid February, a well-positioned listing should show signs of life:

• Consistent showing flow
• Multiple buyer groups circling back for second looks
• Agent feedback shifting from “price” to “timing/terms”
• Offers, or at least serious pre-offer questions

If we don’t see that, we don’t panic. We diagnose and fix the cause.

The bottom line

Q1 is not the time to “test the market.”

It’s the time to exploit the demand curve.

Our job is to position your home, so buyers compete, and the cleanest way to do that is to price for at least two showings per week beginning in February, then go full MLS when the numbers prove we’re in the strike zone.

Thanks, Grant